Pandemic Mortality—A Selective Resurgence

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As we feared when many states lifted restrictions before seeing their Covid-19 caseloads decline enough, death rates are starting to accelerate in many places. I have been tracking deaths by state, using the weekly percentage increase in cumulative deaths as a measure. For example, total deaths attributed to the virus in Texas were 2,608 one week ago, but they are 3,112 now, an increase of 19%. Since the numbers are cumulative, these percentages never go down, but if they approach zero that means that deaths are coming to a halt and the pandemic is under control for now.

Texas reached a low of only an 8% increase for the week ending June 14, but mortality has accelerated since then. Other states in a similar situation are Arizona, Florida and South Carolina. Here I give the lowest weekly percentage increase and when it was reported, followed by the percentage increase for the most recent week.

Arizona: 13% on June 21, now 19%
Florida: 7% on June 21, now 13%
South Carolina: 8% on June 21, now 17%

Other states to watch:

California: 7% on July 5, now 10%
South Dakota: 5% on June 7, now 12%
Tennessee: 9% on July 5, now 16%
Utah: 8% on July 5, now 17%

Georgia’s increase has only been from a low of 3% for the week ending July 5 to 5% this past week, but the rapidly rising caseload suggests further increases in mortality to come.

The good news is that many states that already had serious outbreaks of the disease have brought their deaths practically to a halt. This week’s increases in cumulative deaths were near 0% in New York and Connecticut. They were around 2% in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and 4% in Louisiana.

In just a couple of months, the epicenter of the pandemic has shifted, mainly from the Northeast to the South. No law says it can’t shift again. The main lesson to be learned is that no state can afford to be complacent, and many are paying a steep price for their past complacency. The relentless campaign by the White House to understate the threat and resist national measures to deal with it is not helping.

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