Kochland (part 3)

August 8, 2021

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The “corporate power” referred to in the subtitle of Kochland is not just economic power, but political power. The Koch brothers became poster boys for the role of big money in the political process. They played a leading role in pushing the Republican Party toward more libertarian, pro-market and anti-government policies, and in blocking collective efforts to address national problems like climate change.

David Koch declared his views publicly, running for vice president as a Libertarian in 1980. Kochland author Christopher Leonard characterizes the Libertarian platform as “calling for the abolishment of everything from the US Post Office to the Environmental Protection Agency to public schooling.” Charles preferred to operate behind the scenes, quietly funding a wide range of conservative organizations and campaigns. The Charles Koch Foundation, created in 1974, soon changed its name to the Cato Institute, but its policy positions were also libertarian, with relentless support for tax cuts and privatization of public programs like Social Security.

The “Kochtopus”

Leonard describes Charles Koch’s political influence machine, nicknamed the “Kochtopus,” as a multifaceted operation “including think tanks, university research institutes, industry trade associations, and a parade of philanthropic institutions to support it financially.”

In part, this is a traditional political operation, working to elect candidates and lobby legislators. But it is especially large and well-funded. Leonard compares Americans for Prosperity, the main Koch advocacy group, to a franchise business with “semiautonomous state chapters” all serving “products from the same menu.” Its organization as a tax-exempt “social welfare” entity spares it from having to disclose its donors. It can easily create the appearance of spontaneous, grassroots movements at the local level. Also, today’s corporate lobbyists do not just provide information and persuasive arguments; they organize lavish fundraisers for politicians who vote their way. Another focus of Koch political influence is education, but it is education of an economically and politically motivated kind. The Koch-funded Mercatus Center at George Mason University promotes free-market economics, while the Law & Economics Center at the same university provides a forum for legal scholars who take a dim view of government regulation. It appears to have shaped the views of a generation of judges by inviting thousands of them to its seminars. By blurring the distinction between education and political contributions, Koch has circumvented the restrictions on campaign contributions.

In 1996, Koch Industries created a nonprofit group called the Economic Education Trust. The group did not need to disclose its donors because it was not ostensibly a lobbying or campaign finance organization…. The Economic Education Trust gave $1.79 million to a company in suburban Washington, DC, called Triad Management Services Inc. Triad was supposedly a political consulting firm, but it had a strange business model: it offered its services for free, to Republican candidates. A US Senate report in 1998 concluded that Triad was “a corporate shell funded by a few wealthy conservative Republican activists.”

Instead of just helping elect legislators and influencing their votes, corporations have sought a direct role in writing legislation. Koch has been a major contributor to the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), originally founded by Paul Weyrich of the religious right, which writes model laws to be adopted by state legislatures. Leonard says it has evolved into a “pay-to-play” organization, allowing its largest contributors to write the bills that its member legislators try to get passed.

Energy deregulation

In the 1990s, ALEC developed model legislation for energy deregulation. Koch Industries and other companies that stood to gain from the legislation (notably the notorious Enron corporation) had a large role in writing it. Utility companies, who were more comfortable with the traditional system, opposed deregulation, but Koch and Enron had their way on ALEC’s energy task force. Leonard tells the story of deregulation in California, one state that adopted ALEC’s general approach.

Before deregulation, utility companies were essentially regulated monopolies. Having more than one utility trying to deliver energy to the same house wasn’t practical, but state regulators could protect the public from price-gouging by setting rates to allow a comfortable but not exorbitant profit. When energy prices became more volatile and the need for both conservation and pollution control more pressing, price regulation became more challenging. Setting prices too high would burden consumers, while setting them too low would dampen supply by discouraging producers from bearing the costs of production and pollution control. The free-market solution advocated by ALEC and the libertarians was to let the market set the price. The California deregulation law, passed in 1998, created a competitive market for power, the California Power Exchange:

The law was radical in nature. It instantly broke apart the state’s big utility companies. The utilities became glorified middlemen, buying energy on an open market from traders at Koch and Enron and then selling it to the utility’s customers. The utilities had to sell their power plants to outside companies—many of them in Texas—that operated the plants as independent companies. The utilities also lost their transmission lines, which were taken away and turned into something that resembled a railroad or a pipeline. Anybody could now schedule power to run across the transmission lines, making them the common carrier of power.

In theory, competition among the producers to sell their energy would keep prices under control for consumers. And the competition among utilities to buy energy would keep prices high enough to incentivize production. The price mechanism would balance supply and demand, as in any competitive market.

But what if demand rose faster than supply, pushing up prices? With many other products—let’s use electric cars as an example—some people would just have to wait to buy one until supply caught up and prices went down. But electricity is special, because it has become a necessity. People can conserve energy up to a point, but they need a lot of it all the time. It won’t do to have too many customers seeing their power cut off because they can’t afford it, or to have utility companies going broke trying to buy power on the open market. So, in order to protect the utilities and their customers, California put a cap on the wholesale price charged by producers to utilities, and a floor under the retail price charged by utilities to customers. The retail price was supposedly high enough for utilities to profit, but not so high as to make energy unaffordable for consumers.

What if shortages occurred because the producers would not or could not produce at the capped price? Then another agency—the California Independent System Operator (ISO)—could step in to buy and sell energy for more than the capped price on the exchange. The system was still partly regulated, but with the good intentions of protecting consumers and avoiding blackouts.

Then the energy traders found a way to game the system, in effect creating make-believe shortages so they could sell energy at the uncapped ISO price more often. The game was called energy “parking”, and it worked like this:

Enron traders seem to have invented the parking scheme sometime in the late 1990s. To execute a parking trade, a trader at Koch or Enron sold electricity from a power plant in California to a customer outside the state, like PNM in Arizona. This sale was made in the day-ahead market, where prices were capped. But the sale was bogus. The next day, when power was supposed to be delivered from California to PNM, the utility would suddenly sell the exact same amount of power from Arizona into California, and into the much pricier ISO hourly market.

Such a sale was fraudulent because no actual megawatts were delivered to the out-of-state utility, which simply collected a fee for participating in the deception. Energy prices skyrocketed, and utilities couldn’t pay those prices and remain profitable without being allowed to charge exorbitant rates to customers. The state began to experience both budgetary strains and rolling blackouts.

Enron eventually went bankrupt after this and other fraudulent practices were discovered. The Republican governor who had championed deregulation was out of office, so the political blame fell mainly on his Democratic successor, Gray Davis. Voters recalled him and replaced him with another Republican, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Koch Industries was a lesser offender than Enron, but did settle charges of market manipulation by paying $4.1 million to the state. Only when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission stepped in was the California energy crisis brought to an end.

Climate-change legislation

In 2008, Congress was considering environmental legislation that took a “cap-and-trade” approach to controlling carbon emissions. “The concept was simple. The government capped the total amount of a certain pollutant that could be released. But then it gave companies a license to release that pollution.” Companies that wanted to exceed their cap had to pay to buy credits to do so, while companies that reduced their emissions below their cap earned credits they could sell. Because it relied on a more-or-less free market in pollution credits, it had the support of many Republicans as well as Democrats. George H. W. Bush had initiated a similar approach to controlling sulfur dioxide and acid rain in 1990, with apparent success.

But even that much regulation was too much for Koch Industries. It conducted its largest lobbying effort yet in order to defeat the proposal, working through a new subsidiary, Koch Companies Public Sector. Not only that, but Koch waged a large-scale (dis)information campaign to convince the public that climate change wasn’t real, and that efforts to curb carbon emissions could only impose unacceptable costs on the economy. Between 2006 and 2009, as the planet warmed, the percentage of Americans believing in climate change dropped from 77 percent to 57 percent. Other oil companies, especially Exxon, also participated in this effort, but Koch outspent Exxon by a wide margin. Koch’s political arm, Americans for Prosperity, got many climate-denying Republicans elected by targeting their more moderate and reasonable opponents with negative advertising. Cap-and-trade lost Republican support and died in 2010. Americans for Prosperity also helped Republicans win the 2010 midterms, and one of the first things the Republican-controlled House did was cut off funding for the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, the committee that had originated the cap-and-trade bill.

I have little doubt that the Koch brothers’ enthusiasm for libertarianism was genuine, and that they sincerely believed that what was profitable for Koch Industries was good for the economy and the country. I also have little doubt that in this case and others, they were very, very wrong.

Koch and Trump

Both Charles Koch and Donald Trump held extreme political views, but they did not agree on everything. Trump’s nationalism sometimes conflicted with Koch’s commitment to free trade. Leonard says that “the Koch political machine employed a strategy that could be called ‘block-and-tackle,'” blocking Trump’s proposals where they disagreed, but helping him tackle the problems they agreed on.

The “Kochtopus” supported Trump’s 2017 cuts in corporate and personal income taxes, which by one estimate saved Charles and David Koch personally over $1 billion dollars a year. It also supported Trump’s efforts to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord and roll back environmental regulations.

Trump claimed that he could repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better but less expensive. Charles Koch just wanted to repeal it without replacing it with any government initiative on health insurance. Neither had his way on that issue, as Obamacare survived by one vote in the Senate.

Koch did not approve when Trump interfered with free trade by abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and imposing tariffs on foreign products. He also opposed the proposed Border Adjustment Tax intended to favor companies that operated in the U.S. rather than in other countries. Under existing law, companies could escape U.S. taxation by producing things abroad—or using accounting gimmicks to shift profits to foreign tax havens. Koch Industries often avoided taxes in that fashion, headquartering many of its operations in the Cayman Islands. The proposed Border Adjustment Tax would have taxed profits based on where products were sold rather than where they were produced. That would be costly for a company like Koch that imported oil and other products for sale here. In this case, Koch’s efforts to kill the bill succeeded.

One conclusion to draw from Leonard’s detailed history of Koch Industries and its political machine is that the radicalization of the Republican Party was well under way before Donald Trump came on the political scene. The ascendant philosophy was libertarian rather than nationalist, but many of the goals were the same—lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy, no action on climate change that would inconvenience the fossil-fuel industry, and a minimal role for government in regulating the economy. The political transformation of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries was only partly a grass-roots movement, but heavily a top-down effort directed and financed by wealthy plutocrats.


Kochland (part 2)

August 4, 2021

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After the National Labor Relations Act of 1935 recognized the right of workers to organize and bargain collectively, labor unions became a fixture in corporate life. Author Christopher Leonard says, “It was a losing game to take on unions; their power was too great to challenge. Most companies chose to accommodate organized labor.” But when Charles Koch consolidated his father’s businesses into Koch Industries in 1968, he brought with him a new willingness to take on the unions and subordinate them to his management philosophy and goals.

Pine Bend

The difference became apparent in the early 1970s at the Pine Bend refinery on the Mississippi River in Minnesota. Its workers were organized by the OCAW—the Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers Union. Leonard acknowledges that by this time, many unions had become “bloated power structures” in their own right. The OCAW at Pine Bend had a lot of say over work rules, and some of their rules created inefficiencies by making extra work or imposing additional costs. For example, if workers were asked to work overtime without two hours notice, they had to receive bonus pay on top of their overtime pay.

When management insisted on rewriting all the work rules without union input, the workers went out on strike. Koch broke the strike with a combination of hardball tactics. The company managed to operate the plant with supervisors and other non-union labor. They bullied other unions like the Teamsters to cross the picket lines by threatening to replace their services (such as delivery services) with non-union suppliers. When violence broke out on the picket line, Koch obtained an injunction limiting the union to four picketers. The OCAW eventually capitulated and accepted the contract offered.

Now the work rules favored the company. My favorite example—even if an employee won a grievance against the company, all he won was the right to work extra hours to earn back the money Koch owed him!

Georgia-Pacific

Leonard devotes three chapters to the long, losing struggle of workers at the Georgia-Pacific warehouse complex in Portland, Oregon. Before it was acquired by Koch Industries, he describes it as an “economic island: one of the last employers in the region to offer solid work and solid pay for people who didn’t have a college degree.” Then “this island began to sink, slowly and steadily, as workers’ pay, benefits, and job security were stripped away further, year after year.” He sees this story as typical of the fate of blue-collar workers in the age of corporate acquisitions and private equity.

Here the union was the IBU—the Inlandboatmen’s Union, originally named after workers on river barges. It was absorbed into the ILWU—the Longshoremen’s union—in the 1990s. When Koch Industries acquired Georgia-Pacific, it started cutting costs by reducing the workforce while trying to get more work out of each remaining worker. In addition to an inventory system called the “Warehouse Management System,” it introduced a “Labor Management System” to exert more control over the workers. The system would issue precise instructions to a forklift driver, maintain a precise record of every movement through the warehouse, rank the workers by performance, and post the rankings on a bulletin board. Drivers had to keep their own written log of every minute they were not “on the grid” carrying out the instructions of the system. From management’s point of view, productivity and profits were rising. From the workers’ point of view, the job had become more demanding and more stressful, while wages failed to keep pace with inflation. The situation in the country as a whole wasn’t much better. Productivity and wages used to go up together, but between 1973 and 2013, productivity rose 74.4 percent, but real wages rose only 9.2 percent.

When the time came to renegotiate the labor contract in 2010, the union was looking for big gains, but Koch brought in tough negotiators who were “trained to beat back unions for a living.” Every request by the union was met by a counterproposal that asked the workers to give back something of equal or greater value. If they wanted a decent raise, they would have to replace their health insurance plan with a less desirable one or replace their traditional guaranteed-benefit retirement plan with a riskier 401(k) plan. When the union voted down what Koch proposed, the Koch negotiators stopped coming to meetings. After over a year without a new contract, and in fear of being replaced by non-union labor, the workers backed down. The Labor Management System would stay. The workers would get minimal pay increases, but have to contribute more to keep their health insurance and pension plan.

The 2015 negotiations did not come out any better. By then the number of unionized workers had been cut almost in half. A new worry was that accidents and deaths at the warehouses had been increasing, and Georgia-Pacific’s safety record ranked relatively low in the industry. Again, management wanted to make wage increases conditional upon replacing the health insurance and pension plans. In the end, workers got only 2% raises for two years and the prospect of $1,000 bonuses for the next two years. (The bonuses were less valuable than raises, since they didn’t become part of base pay and grow by compounding). The workers were disgruntled but resigned. Support for the union itself suffered, no doubt as the Koch brothers intended.

Leonard has provided a ground-level look at what happens when bargaining power shifts from labor to management. While business consolidations made workers in many industries dependent on a smaller number of big employers, the decline in unionized manufacturing jobs intensified the competition among workers for a dwindling supply of good jobs. As profits rose but pay stagnated, the share of the national income going to labor declined accordingly, especially after 2000.

Continued


Kochland

August 3, 2021

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Christopher Leonard. Kochland: The Secret History of Koch Industries and Corporate Power in America. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2019.

Christopher Leonard has done us all a favor by amassing and organizing a great volume of information about Koch Industries. The company has not usually gotten the attention its wealth and power deserve, because it is the family business of a highly secretive family. But it is a massive company with many subsidiaries producing a wide range of products, and it is the second largest privately held company in the United States. It branched out from its original focus on oil refining and petrochemicals into businesses like agricultural products and building materials.

Koch traders sell everything from fertilizer, to rare metals, to fuel, to abstract derivatives contracts. Koch Industries’ annual revenue is larger than that of Facebook, Goldman Sachs, and US Steel combined.

The profits from Koch’s activities are stunning. Charles Koch and his brother David own roughly 80 percent of Koch Industries. Together the two men are worth $120 billion. Their fortune is larger than that of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, or Microsoft founder Bill Gates [as of 2019]. Yet David and Charles Koch did not invent a major new product or revolutionize any industry.

The book is a detailed portrait of one company, but its subtitle reveals how the author sees that company—a prime example of growing corporate power in America over the past half century. Many of the book’s themes are central to recent economic history—the ascendancy of a free-market, antigovernment philosophy, the victories of capital over labor, the reliance on corporate acquisitions and asset speculation for corporate profits, the growing political muscle of big business, and its effective resistance to environmental legislation. The book gives life to these abstractions by showing how one company has accomplished them.

Origins of a corporate powerhouse

Fred Koch founded the company in 1940 in Wichita, Kansas. He had four sons, the oldest of whom, Freddie, was more interested in art than the family business. That made the next son, Charles, the heir apparent, and he took over the management shortly before his father died in 1967. The third son, David, served on the board of directors but devoted himself more to politics, eventually running for vice president as a Libertarian. David’s twin brother William was also on the board, but feuded with his brothers over corporate policy and dividend payments. Charles and David succeeded in getting him fired by the board, and the company bought out both Freddie and William’s ownership shares.

Charles Koch took the lead in consolidating his father’s holdings under the name of Koch Industries. Although it began as mainly a refiner and transporter of oil, the company became more diversified and flexible in order to adapt to increasing economic volatility, such as wild swings in oil prices. Charles created a development group specializing in new acquisitions, which the author compares to a private equity firm, but one within an existing company. “The group would come to embody modern American capitalism in the early twenty-first century, an era when private equity and hedge funds scoured the landscape in search of acquisitions.”

Charles Koch ran his company according to a philosophy he called “Market-Based Management” (MBM) which was formalized and taught to every manager. Although he was well-read in a variety of subjects, his philosophy seemed to rely mostly on what he had learned from his domineering father and from free-market economics in the Austrian tradition of Friedrich Hayek. Fred Koch had been a founding member of the John Birch Society, which was considered the far-right fringe of the Republican Party in the 1950s and 60s. Hayek was a well-known critic of the New Deal, and Leonard says that Hayek “was almost religious when it came to describing what the market could do when left to its own devices. He believed that the market was more important, and more beneficial, than the institution of democracy itself.” Charles Koch saw his company as a kind of internal market that should also reward personal initiative motivated by economic reward. He encouraged the manager of each unit to be on the lookout for new opportunities that could benefit the bottom line. He took his philosophy beyond the company as well, working with Wichita State University to establish the MBM Center there. And on Sunday mornings when many Wichita residents were in church, Charles was in the family library, schooling his own children in “a curriculum that taught them about his systematic view of human behavior and how best to organize human society.”

Growing pains

By the mid-1990s, Koch Industries had developed what Leonard calls a “bias toward acquisitions.” Like private equity firms, the company had discovered that they could make more money by buying existing companies then by developing new products on their own. When it worked best, the acquisition strategy could unlock hidden value in underperforming companies, managing them or reselling them for high enough returns to justify the costs of acquiring them. But Koch Industries wasn’t immediately or consistently successful at this.

In the case of Purina Mills, acquired in 1998, Koch paid much more than Purina appeared to be worth, financing most of the deal with bank loans. Koch tried to characterize the loans as “non-recourse” debt, so that the banks would have no claim on Koch’s assets, only those of the Purina subsidiary. But when a collapse in hog prices threw Purina into bankruptcy, the banks successfully sued, claiming that Koch was not independent enough of Purina to justify non-recourse debt. Koch lost its own $100 million investment in Purina, plus another $60 million.

Koch had many other legal problems. In 1989, a report by the Senate Select Committee on Indian Affairs described the company as “the largest purchaser of Indian oil in the country” but also “the most dramatic example of an oil company stealing by deliberate mismeasurement and fraudulent reporting.” The federal case against Koch was eventually dropped for lack of evidence, but a federal civil suit over the same allegations was more successful.

Violations of environmental regulations were another problem. The company employed environmental engineers, but Koch’s Market-Based Management assigned them only advisory roles, while decision-making authority was reserved for the organization’s profit centers. When too much ammonia showed up in the Pine Bend refinery’s wastewater, Koch maintained production by illegally discharging it into the river anyway or letting it spill onto surrounding land. “Koch industries racked up a shocking number of criminal charges and civil complaints throughout the 1990s, branding the company as a kind of corporate outlaw.”

Leonard attributes such failures to the downsides of Market-Based Management, especially its single-minded emphasis on corporate growth and profits.

The culture inside Koch industries…borrowed some of the worst impulses from Wall Street—a hunger for high-profile deals, a desire for giant paydays, short-term thinking—and combined them with Koch Industries’ mandate for growth.

Reinvention and mastery

In 2000, Koch Industries went back to the drawing board and revised its corporate structure and growth strategy, though without abandoning the MBM philosophy. Koch Industries became basically a holding company, owning many smaller firms. The company took pains to segregate those firms from the parent company, so that the latter could avoid the kind of liability that had arisen in the Purina case. Koch Industries would profit from a strategy similar to that of private equity firms—buy a struggling company using mostly borrowed money, but structure the deal so that the debt was the responsibility of the acquired company; then use the company’s cash flow to make the debt payments. If they came out ahead, Koch got the profits. If they didn’t, they could let the acquired company take the fall. “In a matter of just a few years, Koch Industries would execute some of the largest private equity deals in America, with acquisitions worth nearly $30 billion.”

Another lucrative activity was speculation in futures options. If Koch could acquire more accurate information about future conditions than other traders had, it could profit on the difference. Since the demand for energy depends heavily on weather conditions, Koch hired the best meteorologists it could find. One Koch trader speculating on insurance policies made almost five times as much in a year as Koch’s entire pipeline company.

Surprisingly, for those who thought of Koch Industries as a corporate outlaw, Charles Koch began to insist on what he called “10,000 percent compliance,” which meant that everyone in the company would obey 100% of the laws 100% of the time. Sounds great, but what it may also have meant is that the company learned how to shape the law and use the law to its advantage, rather than risk breaking the law. The Clean Air Act had grandfathered in the pollution standards for refineries, so that old companies like Koch could operate, but newer ones found it too expensive to compete. Deregulation of energy prices opened up new opportunities for profit. Proposed regulations to combat climate change were a threat, but the company could use its considerable lobbying and media campaigns to defeat them.

In the early twenty-first century, Koch Industries was thriving. It seemed to have mastered the financial and political challenges of a complex and volatile economy. The Koch brothers were not simply producing something of obvious value and getting paid for it, like a Henry Ford. As Leonard said, they “did not invent a major new product or revolutionize any industry.” One wonders how much of their vast fortune was earned by making real economic contributions, and how much was a matter of using financial, intellectual and political capital to take advantage of those with less capital. With that in mind, I turn to Koch’s labor practices and political operations in my next posts.

Continued


Ages of American Capitalism (part 5)

July 13, 2021

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Continuing with the last of Jonathan Levy’s four ages, the “Age of Chaos,” I turn now to the present century and the period including the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Someday, Americans may look back and see it as the start of a new era in economy and government. So far, however, Levy observes mostly continuity since 2009, and not the new “democratic politics of capital” he would like to see. More on that later.

The “Great Moderation”

In 2004, Ben Bernanke, a governor of the Federal Reserve who would later become its Chair, used this term to describe the economic stability he believed had been achieved. (If this sounds familiar, I recently described Binyamin Appelbaum’s take on the “Great Moderation” in my third post about The Economists’ Hour.) At the time Bernanke was speaking, there had been only 16 months of recession in the previous 21 years. He credited this achievement especially to sound monetary policy, tight enough to control inflation but flexible enough to alleviate recessions by lowering interest rates as needed. Bernanke’s views expressed the capitalist confidence of the time—not only in the stability of the currency, but in the continued growth of economic demand and corporate profits.

Profits were growing rapidly in the 2000s; the bad news was that few of the economic benefits were reaching the average worker. Labor’s share of the national income was plummeting. Levy attributes that to another “credit-fueled and asset-priced” expansion, “which distributed, logically enough, more money to the property owners of assets, rather than to working people.”

Levy then provides a global perspective on this uneven expansion. Much of the world was experiencing an economic boom, but with some noteworthy imbalances. Manufacturing was booming in developing countries with historically low wages, led by China. Other developing economies prospered by meeting the increasing global demand for commodities like oil or iron. Countries of the new European monetary union were expanding their global financial services. The United States contributed a boom in housing and consumption heavily fueled by debt.

The relationship between the U.S. and China was pivotal. China’s communist leaders chose to save and invest much of the revenue from manufacturing exports. While holding down wages and consumption at home, they invested heavily in the United States, in effect financing the soaring U.S. trade deficit. (The federal budget also went from surplus to deficit as the George W. Bush administration cut taxes but increased military spending after 9/11)

The Federal Reserve had lowered interest rates as the economy slowed in 2000-2001. Now the combination of lower-cost loans in the U.S. and capital reinvested by the Chinese produced a “liquidity glut.” That fueled a speculative bubble in U.S. assets, especially housing. The moderation described by Bernanke gave way to a period of speculation and volatility, leading in a few years to financial breakdown.

Sources of profit

Levy does not claim that the American economy of the new millennium was based on speculation alone. Real businesses produced real goods and services and earned real revenue. Internet companies—so many of which had failed in the dot-com bust of 2000—were finding ways to become profitable. One way was to collect massive amounts of user data and sell it to marketers, as Google and Facebook did. Another was to gain a huge advantage over the competition by developing an especially powerful marketing platform, as Amazon did. Levy notes that such business concentrations challenge the thinking of the Law and Economics movement, which had weakened antitrust enforcement on “the assumption that short-term, rational profit maximization among firms would always increase competition to the benefit of all consumers.” One reason why labor’s share of national income declined was that big companies in highly consolidated industries had more power to set wages.

The benefits of the new economy were distributed unevenly, not only because of the growing power imbalance between business and labor, but because of the increasing premium placed on education and skills. The wage gap between college-educated and non-college-educated workers widened. Geographical disparities were also evident, as centers of technological innovation like Silicon Valley flourished, while old manufacturing cities and many rural areas declined. Unemployment remained stubbornly high in what was called a “jobless recovery,” since high-tech industries didn’t employ enough people to compensate for the decline in manufacturing employment. What job growth did occur was more in low-wage services.

A serious underlying problem was that the growth in profits was outrunning the growth in investment and productivity. Levy says that “productivity growth in general disappointed because few potentially productivity-enhancing innovations appeared.” Economic rewards flowed to the owners of intellectual capital (“Big Data”) and human capital (education), but not to enough workers. The investments that might have enhanced the productivity of ordinary workers were not, for the most part, forthcoming. But consumption could still grow if those with stagnant wages could compensate by assuming more debt. That’s where the liquidity glut came in, making it easier to extend debt to people at many income levels. That’s how the expansion of the 2000s turned into the great housing boom of 2003-2006.

U.S. housing prices shot up. Through a “wealth effect,” capital gains on leveraged property ownership could translate into new incomes for American homeowners. The housing stock thus became a new personal income flow. The age’s capitalism of asset price appreciation had found a new asset class to concentrate on, as many ordinary homeowners were given the chance to participate in the game of credit-fueled asset price appreciation. As in credit cycles before, it only worked so long as confidence was maintained, and prices kept going up. That was what the Great Moderation had come to depend on.

In booming cities, residential construction and home prices surged because of increased demand and short supply. But they could flourish in more depressed areas too because of riskier subprime mortgage loans (often with initially low but potentially very high rates). President Bush boasted about the “ownership society,” where ownership of a wealth-producing asset was open to all. The financial services industry constructed a $4 trillion pyramid of mortgage-backed securities on shaky ground. The securities became farther and farther removed from the real financial state of the borrowers and the affordability of the loans. Big banks created various classes of mortgage-backed securities, combined them in complicated ways until rating agencies underestimated their true risk, and even had them backed by insurance companies that also misjudged them.

Levy regards the economic expansion of the 2000s as a “wasted opportunity to make broad-based investments in economic life.” Too many dollars flowed into speculative real estate investments, based on the assumption that home prices would continue rising and workers with stagnant wages could make the payments on their subprime, adjustable mortgages. Meanwhile, “the alarm kept sounding that man-made climate change required long-term fixed investments in a new energy system to capture and reduce carbon emissions.” And climate change was not the only pressing national need being neglected.

The Great Recession

I have discussed the 2008 financial crisis and the associated recession many times, most recently in my summary of The Economists’ Hour, part 3. Levy’s interpretation is based on his understanding of the dynamics of capitalism, including the long-term, linear trend of technological advance and the shorter-term cycles of confidence and credit. The crash of 2008 marked the end of a particularly speculative credit cycle, when a liquidity glut suddenly gave way to a liquidity shortage.

The expansion of the 2000s came to depend heavily on the housing boom, which depended in turn on the extension of credit to home buyers whose low incomes limited their ability to repay the kinds of subprime, adjustable-rate mortgages they were getting. The risks were disguised by complex and overrated securities based on those mortgages. As long as buyers kept buying and confidence in rising home values remained high, the boom could continue. When housing prices peaked in 2006 and loan defaults increased, the bubble burst. Mortgage-backed securities suddenly lost value, and investment banks whose balance sheets were loaded with them could no longer raise cash either by selling them or borrowing against them. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 triggered a massive contraction of credit.

Nervous, precautionary hoarding among the global owners of capital broke out on a massive scale. Capitalism regressed back to where it was during the Great Depression of the 1930s—mired in a liquidity trap. Across the board, spending of all kinds, whether for investment or for consumption, dropped off. Employment collapsed.

The “ownership society” celebrated by President Bush, in which Americans would prosper together by owning rapidly appreciating assets, had failed. “Due to collapsed housing prices, between 2007 and 2010 median wealth declined 44 percent—back, adjusted for inflation, to where it had been in 1969.” (That large a drop may sound hard to believe, but a family with a $300,000 home and a $250,000 mortgage has only $50,000 in equity, which drops by 44% if the house loses just $22,000 in market value. Many families have little net worth outside of their home.)

What was different in this financial panic was that the federal government quickly intervened to restore liquidity. The standard procedure of cutting interest rates to ease borrowing and expand the money supply was not enough. In addition, the Federal Reserve arranged and subsidized the buyout of investment bank Bear Stearns by JP Morgan. It made a large loan to AIG, the largest insurer of mortgage-backed securities. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) authorized the Treasury to buy “toxic assets” that companies could not otherwise sell. (Actually, Treasury injected the cash mainly by purchasing non-voting stock in the companies.) In 2009, the new Obama administration got Congress to pass the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which stimulated the economy with tax cuts, aid to states, infrastructure projects and government research programs. In 2010. the Federal Reserve adopted its policy of “quantitative easing,” buying up long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in order to bring down long-term interest rates. (The higher the demand of lenders for bonds, the easier it is for borrowers to borrow at low rates.)

Although these measures alleviated the immediate crisis, economic recovery was slow. Little was done to prevent ten million homeowners from losing their homes to foreclosure. Nevertheless, a new conservative movement, the Tea Party, formed around the complaint that the Obama administration was doing too much to help “freeloaders” and not enough for “hardworking Americans.” Rather than rallying around Obama as earlier generations of Americans had rallied around Roosevelt, a substantial segment of the electorate still wanted less government, not more.

The limits of reform

On the other hand, Barack Obama was no Franklin Roosevelt either. He filled his administration with leaders associated with the moderate Clinton administration—economic thinkers who had trouble thinking beyond the restoration of financial stability. The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (“Dodd-Frank”) tightened regulation on the big banks and securities ratings agencies. But unlike Roosevelt, Obama didn’t have the benefit of many years of more sweeping proposals—in FDR’s case from the Populist and Progressive movements—and a public that was willing to try them. Even Obama’s rather moderate proposal for subsidized health insurance stirred up ferocious opposition.

Levy regards the Obama years as another lost opportunity. Because government could borrow money at near-zero interest rates, it was a great time to consider bigger public initiatives:

[M]any productive opportunities for spending cried out: to repair public infrastructure on dilapidated roads and bridges, to lay the foundations of a “green” energy grid, to invest in productivity-enhancing technology, or to support early childhood education to reverse the drastic effects of education gaps in the future labor market, to name some obvious candidates.

After Levy wrote those words, Joe Biden proposed such an ambitious agenda. But what Levy observed in the aftermath of the Great Recession was a “Great Repetition,” another expansion led more by asset speculation than by productive investment. This time it was an expansion of corporate debt that led the way.

Levy observes that each transition from one age of capitalism to another has required some form of state action. The victory of the Republican Party in 1860 and the Civil War ushered in the Age of Capital, as the nation transitioned from an agrarian economy based on land and slaves to a manufacturing economy based on steam-driven machinery. Then in 1932, the New Deal ushered in the Age of Control, as government tried to guide the economy with regulation, income supports, and fiscal or monetary policies to counter extremes of the business cycle. The “Reagan Revolution” of 1980 reacted against the reliance on government in the Age of Control and initiated the Age of Chaos.

A new age of capitalism—which Levy does not name and does not yet exist—would require more than an income politics focusing on the distribution of the benefits from capitalism. It requires a “democratic politics of capital,” giving citizens a voice in directing capitalist investments toward socially useful ends. Traditionally, government has directed investment primarily to wage war and maintain a military-industrial complex. Otherwise it has left major investment decisions to the private sphere and the owners of capital, who waste too much capital on short-term speculation. Now other urgent national needs may call for an expanded conception of public investment. Levy would probably like Biden’s concept of “human infrastructure.”

Readers who are not put off by the length of this book will find it historically informative and intellectually challenging. I highly recommend it.


Ages of American Capitalism (part 4)

July 5, 2021

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Now I turn to the last of Jonathan Levy’s four ages of capitalism, the “Age of Chaos” that began in 1980. Here is his overview:

What most distinguishes the Age of Chaos is a shift in what has always been capitalism’s core dynamic: the logic of investment, as it works through production, exchange, and consumption. Since 1980, a preference for liquidity over long-term commitment has dominated capital investment as never before. Fast-moving money, rapid investment and disinvestment, across various asset classes, as well as in and out of various companies, has not only overturned the old methods of production—its logic has often threatened to overwhelm other economic patterns. In short, the liquidity of capital has made for a chaotic age dominated by the vagaries of appreciating assets.

For Levy’s assumptions about liquidity, I refer the reader to my first post on his book, especially the section “Economic growth and the liquidity problem.” The gist of it is that the capitalist economy needs liquidity in some form, but too much of certain kinds of liquidity are a problem. Transactional liquidity—money to buy things—is essential, but too much speculative liquidity—money held for short-term trading—generates booms and busts in asset prices without increasing long-term investment, improving productivity, or generating sustainable prosperity.

This post discusses the two chapters that concern the 1980s and 1990s respectively, “Magic of the Market” and “The New Economy.”

The 1980s and the Reagan administration

Levy presents a balanced and insightful description of the interplay between Reaganomics and the economic developments of the 1980s. Reaganomics did not live up to either the hopes of its proponents or the fears of its detractors. Conservatives hoped that if the government would just get out of the way, the “magic of the market”—one of Reagan’s favorite phrases—would restore the postwar prosperity interrupted by the economic shocks and stagflation of the 1970s. But Reagan was unable to revive the manufacturing-based economy with its high productivity, broad-based income growth and trade surpluses. On the other hand, liberals feared that Reaganomics would undo New Deal accomplishments in regulation and income security, taking the country back to the bad old days of predatory robber barons and exploited workers. But many key elements of New Deal liberalism were here to stay, such as Social Security, securities regulation and progressive taxation. And Reagan himself wholeheartedly embraced one aspect of Big Government—higher spending on the military-industrial complex.

Arthur Laffer’s controversial “supply-side economics” had proposed that tax cuts, especially for the wealthy, would stimulate so much private investment and economic growth that they would pay for themselves by expanding the tax base. When that turned out not to be true, Reagan was forced to curb his tax cutting in order to deal with growing budget deficits. He did not succeed in ending the deficit spending that had become chronic in the “Age of Control.”

There was no going back to an earlier time, because a new kind of economy was emerging. Reaganomics didn’t create it, although it did influence it by favoring capital and weakening labor and government. But something else shaped it more decisively—the spike in interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve under Jimmy Carter’s appointee, Paul Volcker, in order to tame inflation. It worked, but it also triggered the 1981-1982 recession and altered global investment patterns. As inflation fell and the economy recovered from recession, confidence in the value of the dollar returned. It was no longer based on the dollar’s fixed value in gold, however, but on the high interest lenders could earn on dollar-denominated assets. International capital flowed toward the United States, creating a strange new kind of global dominance—a “far more novel U.S. global hegemony.” Postwar America had been a net exporter of goods and capital, like powerful countries before it. Now capital “ran uphill,” and the world’s richest country became a debtor nation. The strong dollar helped Americans buy foreign goods, while making it harder for foreign consumers to buy our goods. But foreigners were happy to take the dollars they accumulated by selling to Americans and lend them back to us by buying American bonds earning high rates of interest. Foreigners helped finance both the trade deficit and the government deficit. As capital flowed in this direction, the U.S. economy had a surplus of credit, while poorer countries had a shortage of credit, reflected in the Latin American debt crisis of 1982.

Earlier, Levy discussed the highly speculative capitalism of the 1920s, which set the stage for the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Underlying causes included the manufacturing boom already in progress, the confidence in the currency after the return to the gold standard after World War I, and the quest for high profit margins to compensate for the high cost of borrowing. Levy sees a similar pattern in the 1980s:

Confidence high, to hurdle over the high interest rate, investors resorted to debt to leverage up short-term speculative profits in stocks, bonds, and commercial real estate especially. Speculative investment was back, as the dynamic factor in economic life, joining hands with an insatiable American consumerism.

In one respect though, the 1980s were very different from the 1920s. While the 1920s expansion was associated with the boom in manufacturing investment, the 1980s expansion occurred despite the disinvestment in manufacturing and the lack of any new surge in fixed investment overall. “As profit making shifted toward short-term finance, tellingly the macroexpansion of the 1980s remains the only one on record in which there was a declining share of fixed investment in GDP.” What did occur was a wave of speculative trading and investment in existing companies. There were takeovers by “corporate raiders” and “leveraged buyouts” financed by high-interest “junk bonds.” There were acquisitions of savings and loans by shady owners who took them into bankruptcy at public expense. And if the Ford Motor Company was the iconic firm of the early twentieth century, Donald Trump’s real estate company was a poster child for 1980s speculation:

Trump, leveraging his real estate assets and no less his celebrity, built his Manhattan real estate and Atlantic City casino empire on debt, funded by a “sprawling network of seventy-two banks”…. Trump was emblematic of a larger trend. He was a business concern with very little underlying income generation, relative to his assets, which he purchased through bank debt. When his assets increased in price, he used them as collateral for more loans, which became his income, given that his actual businesses usually lost money in the end. “Truthful hyperbole” was what Trump branded the business model in his ghostwritten autobiography The Art of the Deal (1987).

Reagan’s “capital-friendly policies,” especially tax cuts for the wealthy, contributed to the expansion, but maybe not as he intended. Much of the newly available capital went into speculation rather than productive investment. Some forms of deregulation, such as more permissive rules governing savings and loans and relaxed enforcement of antitrust laws, gave speculators more freedom to operate.

Sources of income also shifted in the 1980s, as income growth became less dependent on productivity gains and more dependent on asset appreciation. The people who gained the most were those who owned tangible assets like homes or financial assets like stocks and bonds. “The financial appreciation of the asset—through its sale (capital gains) or its capacity to be leveraged in credit markets—generated the pecuniary income.” After-tax income for the wealthy increased even more, because of tax cuts. Meanwhile, average hourly compensation for workers remained flat, but their households could increase their spending by taking on more debt.

The expansion that began after the 1981-1982 recession lasted until 1990. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the late 1980s, fearing inflation, firms and households became more reluctant to borrow. Consumer spending declined, real estate values dropped, and the market for junk bonds collapsed. Donald Trump went bankrupt, although he would not stay down for long.

The 1990s and the Clinton administration

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a “remarkably optimistic moment” for capitalism. There was even talk of the “end of history,” since capitalist democracy seemed to have emerged victorious over its greatest economic and political rival. Americans expected the United States to remain the strongest economy in the world, dominating what was becoming an increasingly global economy. Prosperity would depend more than ever on the free movement of capital, people and goods across national boundaries. All three, however, tended to flow toward the U.S., as the country continued becoming more a consumer of manufactured goods than a producer, and more a borrower of capital than a lender. The largest American company, Walmart, was not a producer, but a retailer, mostly selling goods made elsewhere.

The good news about the 1990s was that the total rate of fixed investment increased in spite of the continued disinvestment in old manufacturing industries. This was mainly due to new investments in information technology. Productivity growth accelerated and wages improved a bit, while inflation remained under control. The silicon microprocessor was a general-purpose technology adaptable to a wide variety of uses. Silicon Valley emerged as the leading center of the electronic revolution.

A silicon chip is a physical thing, much smaller but just as tangible as an industrial machine. Recall, however, Levy’s broader definition of capital—the “process through which a legal asset is invested with pecuniary value, in light of its capacity to yield a future pecuniary profit.” In the information age, intangible assets like data, social networks and technical skills meet that definition. Intellectual, social and human capital became more vital wealth-producing assets. Society became fascinated by the Internet as the “information highway,” the infrastructure for the free flow of ideas. In that respect, although the forms of capital were different, the emerging economy had something in common with the early manufacturing economy.

Back then, at the dawning auto-industrial society, financial activity sponsored new long-term fixed investments, just as the 1990s saw new long-term investments at the dawning of an Internet-based economy. (By contrast, the 1980s had been a moment of speculative disinvestment, with little creation.)

As promising as the “New Economy” was, it was emerging within a society with unresolved social issues, in particular the unfinished movements for racial, gender and economic equality. Some forms of human capital were highly valued, such as technical skills, while others were overlooked or devalued. Places in the vanguard of economic development, like Silicon Valley, had their divisions between hi-tech jobs for white men and lower-wage service jobs for women and minorities. Many other places didn’t have enough jobs of any kind, although they had increasing rates of incarceration.

President Clinton came into office in 1993 with a liberal agenda that included health care reform and pro-worker labor laws. But the following year, Republicans took control of Congress for the first time since 1954 and issued a very conservative manifesto, the “Contract with America.” Clinton couldn’t pass liberal legislation, but what he could do was embrace the wealth-creating potential of the “New Economy”:

During the 1990s, by contrast with the more improvisational Reagan administration, the “New Democrats” of President Bill Clinton articulated a coherent political-economic settlement for the new age. Clinton went all in on a finance- and technology-driven, center-left vision of “globalization.”

Clinton accepted the conservative proposition, “The era of Big Government is over,” and counted on the free flow of capital and trade to create prosperity for all. He approved the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, and deregulation of telecommunications and banking in 1996. (The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which kept the same firm from engaging in both banking and investing, was repealed, mainly for the benefit of Citigroup.) Clinton also promoted the welfare reform bill that made public assistance more temporary and attached work requirements to aid for single parents.

President Clinton’s fiscal policy was also conservative, accepting the need for fiscal austerity and balanced budgets. The theory was that reduced government borrowing would “free up capital for long-term fixed investment.” In 1993, before Republicans took control of Congress, Democrats passed a deficit reduction measure that included both spending cuts and tax increases. As a result, by the late 1990s, the federal budget was in surplus for the first time since 1960. (Every Republican opposed Clinton’s deficit reduction plan, claiming that the budget could be balanced with spending cuts alone. But no Republican administration since Eisenhower has ever achieved that.)

Clouds on the horizon

The period from 1992 to 2000 was an unusually long period of sustained economic expansion. It was based on high confidence, often justified by long-term investments in emerging technologies and resulting productivity gains. However, assets like company stocks appreciated even faster than productivity and profits. In 1996, Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned that the stock market was beginning to show signs of “irrational exuberance.” Capital continued to flow into the U.S., and the quest of capital for high returns fed another speculative boom. As the federal government reduced its borrowing, more capital flowed into corporate stocks and bonds and less into Treasury bonds.

Although the Internet had great business potential, how it would actually fulfill that potential was not yet clear. In 1995, Netscape’s initial public offering sold for $3 billion, although it had no operating profits. So began the so-called “dot-com” boom, in which investors rushed to finance enterprises whose future returns were questionable, to say the least. “Capital had never before moved so quickly into a new asset class.” When E*Trade went online In 1996, stock-trading joined pornography and social networking as popular Internet pastimes. The Nasdaq exchange, which listed many of the Internet companies, reached a price-earnings ratio of 175, compared to a typical ratio of 10 to 20. Then it lost half of its value in 2000 when the speculative bubble burst. But that was nothing compared to the boom-and-bust cycle that would appear early in the new millennium.

Continued