Administration Weakens Health Insurance Mandate

February 17, 2017

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One of the less popular features of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) is the mandate requiring most people to obtain health insurance. Opposition comes especially from people who are too healthy to feel they need much insurance and too well-off financially to qualify for free or subsidized insurance.

However, the mandate is an integral–and many would say indispensable–part of a health insurance system that relies on private insurers. (Many progressives would prefer a single-payer, “Medicare for all” type of system, but health providers and insurance companies did a pretty good job of taking that off the table.) Without a mandate to buy insurance, insurers may not enroll enough people to generate the premiums they need to cover the people with pre-existing conditions, who are now entitled to insurance. In general, that’s how insurance works, of course. If everybody carries auto insurance or homeowners’ insurance, insurers can raise enough money to cover the people who actually have car accidents or damage to their homes. Insurers cannot make a profit if people can wait to buy insurance until they need a payout. A new system that only insures the sick is no more desirable than an old one that primarily insured the healthy.

During the transition to Obamacare, the tax penalties that apply to the uninsured have been gradually phasing in. The hope has been that as the penalties rise and more people sign up, any premium increases should turn out to be modest and temporary. After all, insurers don’t want to scare away too many of their future customers with high initial premiums. But recently, we have been hearing a lot of complaints both from customers who say their premiums are too high, and from insurers who say their revenues are too low because they don’t have enough customers. Some insurers have been dropping out, leaving consumers with fewer choices.

No one can be sure how much these problems would be alleviated as enrollment increases, or how many adjustments to the law might be needed to make it work better.

Executive action

The Trump administration is not waiting to find out. On his first day in office, the President issued an executive order announcing his intention to repeal the law, as he promised during his campaign. What would happen in the short term is not entirely clear. On the one hand, the order says, “In the meantime, pending such repeal, it is imperative for the executive branch to ensure that the law is being efficiently implemented….” On the other hand, it also said, “To the maximum extent permitted by law, the Secretary of Health and Human Services…and the heads of all other executive departments and agencies…shall exercise all authority and discretion available to them to waive, defer, grant exemptions from, or delay the implementation of any provision or requirement of the Act that would impose a fiscal burden on any State or a cost, fee, tax, penalty, or regulatory burden on individuals, families, healthcare providers, health insurers, patients, recipients of healthcare services, purchasers of health insurance, or makers of medical devices, products, or medications.”  In other words, we’ll enforce the law, but only if it doesn’t cost anyone anything.

This week, the IRS revealed that it will not require taxpayers to report on their tax returns whether they are insured or not. They can leave that section blank, and the IRS will accept their return and impose no penalty for being uninsured. Unless their insurance status comes out in a tax audit, they are in effect released from the Obamacare mandate. This is not entirely new, since during the transition to Obamacare the IRS has been quietly accepting returns from people who failed to provide the requested information. Strict enforcement was supposed to be in effect for returns filed this year. Under the Trump administration, it won’t be in effect at all. Makers of tax preparation software such as TurboTax are now revising their programs to stop flagging users who fail to answer the health insurance questions.

Maybe this will be another executive order to be tested in court. President Obama was accused of exceeding his authority when he set immigration enforcement priorities, in effect exempting from deportation undocumented immigrants who had been brought to the US as children. Now President Trump is acting to undermine an entire law that he dislikes.

Repeal and replace, or quietly kill?

In an ideal world, the country wouldn’t abandon its existing health insurance system until it had a viable replacement. The more one understands about how the various provisions of the Affordable Care Act work together, the more one realizes how challenging it will be to devise something that works better. President Trump has promised that his improved system will cover more people at lower cost, a very tall order.

While we are waiting for Republicans to come up with such a system, the administration is hedging its bets by trying to make the present system unworkable. Then the country may have no choice but to accept the Republican alternative, whether it is really an improvement or not.


Trump Order is Bad News for Retirement Savers

February 9, 2017

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On February 3, President Trump issued a memorandum to the Secretary of Labor regarding the “Fiduciary Duty Rule” that was scheduled to go into effect this April. Suggesting that the rule “may not be consistent with the policies of my Administration,” he directed the Department of Labor to reexamine the proposed rule and consider rescinding or revising it.

The Department of Labor has been working on this rule since 2009 with the aim of improving the quality of investment advice received by investors in retirement plans. With traditional pensions on the decline and participant-directed retirement plans like 401(k)s and IRAs replacing them, more people need investing advice than ever. This has highlighted a problem described in a Department factsheet:

Many investment professionals, consultants, brokers, insurance agents and other advisers operate within compensation structures that are misaligned with their customers’ interests and often create strong incentives to steer customers into particular investment products. These conflicts of interest do not always have to be disclosed and advisers have limited liability under federal pension law for any harms resulting from the advice they provide to plan sponsors and retirement investors. These harms include the loss of billions of dollars a year for retirement investors in the form of eroded plan and IRA investment results….

To put it bluntly, too many so-called advisors recommend the products that earn them big commissions, not the ones that offer the best value for the investor. When we buy a car, we understand that the dealer is just a salesperson who would love to sell us the most expensive car, whether we need it or not. When we go to a doctor, we expect the recommended treatment to be in our best interest, not what is most profitable for the doctor. The question is what is the appropriate standard of care when we depend on an advisor’s expertise for our financial health.

The proposed Fiduciary Duty Rule would require all those who provide retirement plan advice for compensation to adhere to a fiduciary standard, which requires “putting their clients’ best interest before their own profits.” This requirement would apply whenever advisors recommend an investment, if they are compensated in any way for doing so. It doesn’t matter whether the client is paying for the advice itself or whether a sales rep is earning a commission for selling a product.

Closing a loophole in the fiduciary standard

Debate over the fiduciary standard goes back a long way. I have discussed it before, especially in Section 11 of my “Sound Investment” series and in my review of Helaine Olen’s Pound Foolish, a critique of the personal finance industry.

Many people may not realize that the fiduciary standard is already well established in law. The Investment Advisers Act of 1940 required anyone giving investment advice for compensation to register as such and adhere to such a standard. So what’s the problem? The Securities and Exchange Commission made an exception for those whose primary business is trading securities, even if they also give some advice to their customers. In recent years, brokers and other sellers of financial products have expanded their financial advising functions and often receive compensation for them. Nevertheless, the SEC continued to maintain that they did not have to register as investment advisors nor adhere to a fiduciary standard because their advice was “incidental” to their job as brokers. So two types of advisors, those obligated to put their clients’ interests first and those without such obligation, have co-existed in the financial services industry, with the general public often unable to tell the difference. Brokers and insurance agents have been able to call themselves financial advisors, without being obligated to recommend the products that are best for their customers.

After the Great Recession, the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 (Dodd-Frank) gave the SEC the authority to reexamine the issue and write a new regulation. After studying the matter, the SEC concluded that the loophole it previously created should now be closed: “The standard of conduct for all brokers, dealers and investment advisors, when providing personalized investment advice about securities to retail customers…shall be to act in the best interest of the customer without regard to the financial or other interest of the broker, dealer or investment advisor providing the advice.” The actual regulations that will implement this principle continue to be hotly contested. Meanwhile, the Department of Labor has finalized a fiduciary rule based on a different statutory authority, its authority to regulate retirement plans under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA). The DOL’s rule would apply only to financial advice relating to retirement plans, not to investments more generally. This is the rule whose implementation the President is now blocking.

Last month, the Consumer Federation of America issued a report, “Financial Advisor or Investment Salesperson?: Brokers and Insurers Want to Have it Both Ways.” The report documented the two-faced way that “transaction-based financial professionals” describe themselves:

When they are marketing their services to the investing public and enticing clients into handing over their hard-earned savings, these sales-based financial professionals present themselves as “trusted advisors” whose only concern is their clients’ best interest. But try to hold them legally accountable for meeting that standard, and those same “advisors” quickly change their tune. Because they are salespeople who are “merely selling” investment products, they claim, no fiduciary standard ought to apply.

In their marketing materials, brokers and insurance companies use terms like “financial advisor,” “financial consultant,” or “retirement counselor” to describe themselves. They characterize their services as “a comprehensive approach to total wealth management delivered by your most trusted advisor,” and claim to be “safeguarding the money of others as if it were our own,” to quote some of their websites. Surveys show that this kind of marketing is successful in getting the general public to confuse sales reps with the registered investment advisors who actually are held to a fiduciary standard. But when they are fighting that standard in legislative hearings or in court, they are quick to claim that they are just salespersons. They deny having the special relationship of trust that would justify classifying them as fiduciaries under existing or proposed law.

The high financial stakes

The Consumer Federation described how savers are being hurt by this situation:

Investors who unknowingly rely on biased salespeople as if they were trusted advisors can suffer real financial harm as a result. It is estimated, for example, that retirement savers lose $17 billion a year or more as the result of the excess costs associated just with conflicted retirement advice. The cost on an individual basis, in the form of lost retirement savings, can amount to tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars over a lifetime of investing, money that retirees struggling to make ends meet can ill afford to do without.

Here’s a hypothetical example. Suppose you save $500 a month for 20 years in a tax-deferred retirement plan holding mutual funds, for a total investment of $120,000. With a 7% annual return after expenses, you would accumulate $260,463 over the 20 years. However, if you lost $25 of each $500 invested because of unnecessary commissions or fees, and then received only a 6% return because of higher annual mutual fund expenses, you would accumulate only $219,469, a shortfall of about $40,000. Multiply this by millions of savers and you begin to see the size of the problem.

Of course, every company that charges high fees, commissions or expense ratios will try to justify them as fair compensation for value provided. So the question is whether investors who are being charged more are receiving any added value. Although investment returns can be all over the map, most of the evidence does not support the contention that the investment products pushed by brokers and insurance reps outperform investments that are available less expensively elsewhere. In particular, index funds that you can buy directly from companies like Vanguard and Fidelity with no sales commissions and rock-bottom expense ratios outperform the majority of high-cost actively managed mutual funds. For more explanation of why so many aggressively marketed investments have such disappointing returns, see Section 6 of my “Sound Investing” series.

When I worked as a registered investment adviser (the kind who was legally bound by the fiduciary standard), many clients came to me for a portfolio review. Using standard measures of costs and risk-adjusted performance, I routinely found overpriced, underperforming, and often unnecessarily confusing products that had been recommended to them by brokers or insurance agents. In most cases, they would have accumulated more if they had gotten simpler and better advice.

What we see here is a massive and unearned transfer of wealth from middle-class savers to financial service companies that too often serve themselves at the expense of their customers. This is one reason why the era of self-directed retirement accounts has also been an era of increasing inequality in the distribution of wealth. The new regulations are intended to give middle-class savers a fighting chance.

Alleged adverse effects of the fiduciary rule

Businesses that oppose consumer protection initiatives rarely admit what really concerns them, that a new rule may interfere with a profitable business model. They almost always claim that it will hurt consumers in some way that consumer advocates and regulators fail to see.  President Trump’s order takes a pro-consumer stance by asking the Department of Labor to examine whether the fiduciary rule would “adversely affect the ability of Americans to gain access to retirement information and financial advice.” The implication is that retirement savers may be losing something if they cannot get the “free” advice offered by brokers and insurance agents, even if that advice is flawed by conflicts of interest that work against investors’ best interests.

Investors of modest means do need financial advice that doesn’t cost them much, and accepting the recommendations of sales reps is one way to get it. Investment advisors who do not make their money from sales commissions derive their income from flat fees for advising sessions or for writing financial plans, as I did, or from asset management fees based on a percentage of assets under management. Making a living while keeping these charges affordable for small investors is not easy. It is one thing to set a fiduciary standard, but another thing to make fiduciaries available at a price most savers can afford.

However, the fiduciary rule need not leave most retirement savers with no affordable advice at all. The kind of basic advice that small investors need to handle their retirement plans is already pretty widely available, and could be even more available if employers and schools made more of an effort to provide it. Most savers will do fine putting the bulk of their retirement savings in a single “target retirement fund,” or in a small number of index funds covering domestic and foreign stocks and bonds. (Of course, they need to follow other basic advice like getting an early start and saving 10-15% of income.) Financial professionals can still make a good living selling advice to people of means who are interested in playing riskier or more sophisticated investment games. But for the average worker, the present system relies too heavily on a business model that institutionalizes conflicts of interest and needlessly skims off too large a portion of the savings that people need for their retirement.

President Trump’s order is an anti-consumer measure shrouded in pro-consumer rhetoric. It purports to protect American savers, while really protecting businesses that charge them too much and deliver too little. It ignores years of research by the federal government’s own agencies as well as by professional financial planners, academics and consumer groups. It shows that the people who have Trump’s ear are the billionaires and bankers he has brought into his administration, not advocates for the general public. It is one more piece of evidence that–populist rhetoric notwithstanding– he intends to serve the economic elites rather than the people.

 

 


The Fallacy of “Originalism”

February 6, 2017

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In my last post, I listed a number of the opinions that placed Justice Antonin Scalia on the far right of the judicial spectrum. That is the same territory where we find President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Judge Neil Gorsuch. I suggested that Trump could have helped bring the country together by nominating a more moderate justice, like Merrick Garland, but he chose not to do so.

Conservatives may reasonably argue that where a judge falls on some spectrum of opinion is less important than the constitutional correctness of his or her positions. We often hear the claim that conservative justices just follow the constitution, while liberal justices exceed their authority by trying to make new law to carry out some liberal agenda. Justice Scalia was the main proponent of the position called “originalism,” which holds that the articles of the Constitution have an original meaning that never changes and can be applied consistently. Less conservative judges and legal scholars say that this approach treats the Constitution as a lifeless document, instead of as a living document subject to evolving interpretation.

An original fixed meaning?

The notion that any set of words has a fixed meaning and requires no interpretive process goes against most of what I have learned as a sociologist. I believe that meaning always depends to some degree on context, and context is inherently broad and flexible. This is true even for terms in the physical sciences. Think of how quantum physics has provided a new context for understanding what an electron is (particle? wave of possibility?).

Few legal scholars would argue that the words of a law have one meaning that is obvious to anyone who reads them, or even to everyone who did read them at the time of their adoption. For one thing, getting enough votes for passage often requires using language that is vague enough to satisfy people with different views. Then of course, the courts have to figure out what the words mean in practice–that is, in the application to real situations and cases. That is the inescapable challenge of interpretation.

The First Amendment guarantees freedom of speech, but the devil is in the details. Does it mean that I am free to yell “Fire!” in a crowded theater (Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes’s famous example)? To give political speeches with a bullhorn on a residential street at 2:00 in the morning? To slander someone by telling deliberate lies about them? To trick customers into buying worthless securities with fraudulent claims? To spend millions of dollars of corporate profits to help elect candidates who promise to vote against environmental regulations?

The idea that every reasonable application was anticipated and agreed upon when a law was passed is difficult to defend. The more realistic position is that the meaning of a law becomes clearer as judges apply it to cases, but that occurs over time. When does the meaning become entirely clear–after ten years, fifty years, a hundred years? Once we admit that the meaning of a law evolved over time, we must also admit that it continues to evolve in the present era. Legal interpretation will always be a balancing act that respects original intentions and precedents, but remains open to new interpretations and applications.

When the Fourteenth Amendment was adopted after the Civil War, it was not at all obvious that the equal protection clause required racial integration. Until the Brown v. Board of Education decision in 1954, courts saw legally mandated racial segregation as compatible with the equal protection of the laws. That was the doctrine of “separate but equal” enshrined in Plessy v. Ferguson in 1896. By the mid-twentieth century, more people understood and acknowledged how segregation deprived racial minorities of equal educational, employment and housing opportunity. The legal requirements of “equal protection” changed accordingly. As Laurence Tribe and Joshua Matz say in Uncertain Justice, “Most scholars doubt that originalism, faithfully applied, can justify race and sex equality doctrines…that have become central to our national self-understanding.” I like that way of putting it: The meaning of our Constitution evolves along with our national self-understanding.

Still another example is our conception of liberty, which is explicit or implicit in many Constitutional articles. Everyone agrees that the Constitution places limits on government in order to protect the liberties of the people. In early America, those liberties were understood to include considerable freedom in economic matters, within the “laissez-faire” free market. On the other hand, strict regulation of personal sexual behavior was permissible. Maybe that made sense in a sparsely populated, predominantly rural society with a high birth rate, a high demand for labor, a strong association between sex and reproduction, and a strong expectation that women would marry and bear children. In urban industrial America on the other hand, the need for more business regulation became apparent, while the state’s need to favor marital and reproductive sex through strict sexual regulation became less clear. Along with the sexual revolution and the emancipation of women came Supreme Court cases that struck down old legal taboos–on contraception in Griswold v. Connecticut (1965), on abortion in Roe v. Wade (1972) on homosexual behavior in Lawrence v. Texas (2003). Scalia was not amused by this trend, and he challenged his fellow justices to explain how laws that were once constitutional could now be unconstitutional. But inevitably the specific rights implied by the Constitution are redefined from time to time, even as the abstract words of the Bill of Rights remain the same.

When liberal justices strike down a law they find unconstitutional, conservatives complain that they are usurping the role of the lawmakers. Just apply the law; don’t make it, judges like Neil Gorsuch say. If taken too far, that turns the judicial branch of government into a rubber stamp for the legislative branch. Interpretation and evaluation of law in the light of the Constitution is exactly what the judiciary is supposed to do. And conservatives are hardly passive in the face of laws they dislike. They are perfectly willing to strike down laws that infringe on the liberties they recognize, even if they have to engage in their own creative interpretation of the Constitution to do so.

Scalia on the right to bear arms

As a case in point, consider Justice Scalia’s opinion representing the conservative majority in District of Columbia v. Heller (2008). That decision struck down the D.C. ban on handguns as a violation of the Second Amendment.

The Second Amendment states, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” Before Heller, the Supreme Court had limited the right to bear arms to participation in an organized militia, which does seem to be the most obvious interpretation. The court had never before struck down a law limiting private ownership of guns, and in 1939 it upheld a law banning the ownership of sawed-off-shotguns.

By 2008, however, a stronger conservative movement was promoting a broader and more individualistic interpretation of gun rights. Public support was growing for gun ownership, not just for hunting, but for self-defense in response to high crime rates, and also (on the far right) for potential resistance to federal government tyranny.  As a conservative gun owner himself, Scalia had some sympathies with this interpretation.

In order to break with many years of judicial precedent, Scalia had to “discover” the new more individualistic right to bear arms in the Constitution. He accomplished this through historical research purporting to show that the individualistic meaning was actually the original meaning. From the beginning, people understood the Second Amendment to be conferring a personal right to own guns, whether participating in a militia or not. They knew what it meant when it was passed, even if the courts were apparently misled by the wording and wrongly narrowed it to a militia! In Scalia’s words, “Constitutional rights are enshrined with the scope that they were understood to have when the people adopted them, whether or not future legislatures or (yes) even future judges think that scope too broad.”

While many conservatives accept Scalia’s claim that he is just reading the Constitution as it was originally intended to be read, constitutional scholars like Tribe and Matz are skeptical. They point out that in order to assert what the amendment meant in 1791, Scalia actually draws on sources from the 1600s to the 1900s, as if there were a single unchanging opinion that prevailed throughout the entire country over several centuries. Other judges and scholars can find historical materials with contrary positions. Scalia also supports exceptions to an absolute right to bear arms that were hardly obvious to all in the eighteenth century, such as the disqualification of felons (not recognized in federal law until 1938) and the mentally ill (1968). Tribe and Matz say, “It is unclear how an exception for laws born in the twentieth century could possibly accord with Heller’s claim that Second Amendment rights were forever defined in 1791.” It is also hard to see how originalism can settle questions that have only arisen recently, such as the legality of computerized background checks. Tribe and Matz conclude, “Ultimately, a close look at Heller reveals an opinion that mixes original meaning with broad national traditions and distinctly modern understandings.”

Originalism and conservatism

We shouldn’t be surprised that conservatives are fond of legal originalism, since conservatism and originalism amount to very much the same thing. Originalists like Scalia and Gorsuch go as far as they can to find the law in “national traditions” rather than “modern understandings, although they cannot quite pull it off. Essentially they are traditionalists rather than modernists. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t judicial activists at times. They are quite willing to overturn existing laws and legal precedents in order to defend tradition.

In Scalia’s case, his cultural traditionalism was so extreme that it endangered our emerging recognition of the rights of racial minorities, women, consumers, the LGBT community, and perhaps the thousands of Americans killed with firearms each year. Extending this conservative court into the future will not serve our country very well.


Another Scalia? Seriously?

February 3, 2017

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In selecting a justice for the Supreme Court, President Trump had a golden opportunity. He could have taken a big step toward his stated goal of being a president for all the people. He could have nominated someone like Merrick Garland, a moderate and centrist judge praised by leaders of both parties and acceptable to the great majority of Americans. That’s what Barack Obama did, but we all know what happened. Republicans refused to give the candidate a hearing, holding the position open for the next–hopefully Republican–president to fill. And it worked. But wouldn’t it have been great if Trump had done the right thing for the country and nominated a moderate anyway?

Instead, we are getting Judge Neil Gorsuch, one of the most far-right conservatives available. Republicans will probably get him confirmed, one way or another, but with almost no bipartisan support.

Trump selected exactly the kind of justice he said he wanted, someone as similar as possible to the man he would replace, Justice Antonin Scalia. Judge Gorsuch has made clear that he regards Scalia as his primary role model. Court watchers who have analyzed Judge Gorsuch’s opinions rate him at least as conservative as Scalia, and probably a little more so.

A good way to anticipate Judge Gorsuch’s role on the Court is to recall some of Scalia’s own positions:

Scalia supported racial and gender equality in the abstract, but put severe limits on the government’s efforts to achieve it. He was an ardent foe of deliberately increasing minority or female employment or educational admissions, even to correct an existing pattern of discrimination or to achieve the educational purpose of creating a diversified student body.

Scalia voted to eliminate the requirement of the Voting Rights Act that states with a history of discrimination get changes in their voting laws approved by the Justice Department. He did not see enough racism in today’s America to justify such a “burden”. States like North Carolina and Texas immediately rushed to pass new voting restrictions that would impact negatively on black voters.

He supported the right of states to criminalize homosexual behavior and dissented when the court put a stop to that criminalization. He supported state laws against same-sex marriage, as well as the federal law that refused to recognize such marriages even in states where they were legal.

He favored overturning Roe vs. Wade and allowing states to ban abortions at all stages of pregnancy.

Scalia wanted to strike down the Affordable Care Act, seeing no constitutional basis for its individual mandate to obtain health insurance. He did not find that basis in the federal government’s power to impose tax penalties (as Chief Justice Roberts did), or in its power to regulate interstate commerce. On the other hand, he supported using the interstate commerce clause as a justification to ban medical marijuana even in states that had legalized it.

In criminal law, he voted to overturn the Miranda decision, which requires authorities to inform arrested suspects of their legal rights. He dissented when the Court outlawed the death penalty for minors or the mentally retarded, something that most democratic countries had done years ago.

Scalia viewed most campaign finance reform as an infringement on the free speech rights of donors. He supported the right of corporations as well as individuals to spend unlimited amounts of money to promote political causes. Like his conservative colleagues, he acknowledged no danger that money would corrupt politics as long as it was spent by PACs and super PACs rather than given directly to political campaigns.

He also upheld as constitutionally protected free speech the right of businesses to market violent video games to minors without parental approval. On the other hand, he was more willing to restrict speech for students, prisoners, public employees and human rights activists. Constitutional lawyers Laurence Tribe and Joshua Matz (Uncertain Justice) see a pattern here, in that Scalia’s free-speech positions always “advantaged the powerful over the comparatively powerless.”

Scalia was one of the most pro-business justices since the 1940s. He could be relied upon to favor the interests of businesses over those of consumers or workers. One way to do so was to block class action suits in cases where alleged business misconduct affected many people. According to Tribe and Matz, “The Court has reflected that sentiment by issuing a string of opinions—all decided five-to-four and all authored by Scalia—that have the obvious purpose of destroying most consumer and employment class actions.”

Trump’s preference for judges as conservative as Scalia is further evidence that he is a very strange kind of populist. Scalia wanted to protect people against what he saw as overly regulatory federal government. But for a man of justice, he was remarkably uninterested in protecting people against injustices perpetuated by the rich and powerful. Maybe he was a man of his time, but as time marches on, the positions he held are becoming increasingly out of the American mainstream.

We keep hearing that this was a “change election.” I doubt that putting another Scalia on the Supreme Court is the change that most people want.


Immigration Ban Poorly Thought Out

January 30, 2017

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In my last post, I questioned the wisdom of cutting off funding for international family planning agencies in an effort to reduce abortions. Since organizations like Planned Parenthood help women avoid the unwanted pregnancies that often lead to abortions, impeding their work is more likely to increase abortions than reduce them. In public policy, good intentions are not enough. Political leaders also need the expertise to assess the real-world consequences of ideas that sound good in speeches or fit neatly into some political ideology.

Experts on terrorism are raising analogous questions about President Trump’s executive order, “Protecting the Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into the United States.” No one questions the goal of protecting Americans against terrorism. Whether a ban on immigration from seven Muslim countries is an effective way to do that is questionable.

The administration issued its executive order hastily, apparently without much consultation with our own government agencies and experts. Although one of the objectives was to allow time to develop better vetting techniques, the administration did not conduct any review of existing vetting procedures before concluding that they are failing. The order was so broad and vague that it appeared to apply to green card holders who were already living in the country legally, but happened to be traveling abroad when the order was issued. The legal basis for the order is murky, since one federal law gives the President the authority to suspend the entry of some classes of aliens in the national interest, but a later federal law bans discrimination among immigrants on the basis of national origin.

The order singled out the Muslim countries of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen for a 90-day ban on visas. In addition, it halted refugee vetting and admission for 120 days for all countries, but indefinitely for Syria, where the refugee crisis is particularly acute. Critics noted that the list of countries did not include any from which the 9/11 terrorists had come, such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt. According to Scott Shane’s analysis in the New York Times, “Since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, no one has been killed in the United States in a terrorist attack by anyone who emigrated from or whose parents emigrated from…the seven countries targeted….” As Shane and many others have noted, the list also did not include any Muslim countries in which Donald Trump has business interests. The order may be something of an overreaction, because only 123 out of 230,000 US killings since 9/11 have been attributed to Muslim terrorists. Better vetting of Americans buying guns would probably do a lot more to save lives than keeping foreigners out, but the Trump administration is ideologically opposed to that.

Supporters of the ban defend it as a preventive measure. Even if immigrants from these troubled countries have not killed any Americans yet, they might in the future. Although we cannot rule out that possibility, we can reasonably ask whether the proposed solution alleviates or aggravates the problem it intends to address. Middle Eastern terrorists are political extremists who often try to justify their actions with an extreme interpretation of Islam. The United States cannot fight terrorism in Iraq or Syria–or at home for that matter–without the cooperation of the more moderate majority of Muslims. That’s why both George W. Bush and Barack Obama took pains to say that we are not at war with the Muslim religion itself. The new administration denies that this order is a ban on Muslims as such, since many Muslim countries are not included. But that distinction is likely to be lost on many in the Muslim world, since Trump is on record calling for a Muslim ban, and the executive order does make a religious distinction by exempting religious minorities (no doubt intending Christians) within the Muslim countries. Trump has expressed far more sympathy for the Christian victims of ISIS than for the larger number of Muslim victims. He has even claimed that Muslim refugees have been getting into this country easily while Christians have been kept out, but the actual numbers admitted are nearly the same for both religions. The order lumps all the Muslims together in these war-torn countries–the radicals and the moderates, our enemies and our allies, the terrorists and their victims, the adults and the children–and sends a message loud and clear that none of them are welcome here. Extremists can then use that message to advance their anti-Western agenda.

Alienating our friends and reinforcing our enemies’ talking points sounds like a formula for further radicalization, conflict and insecurity.