Neil Howe believes that today’s social turmoil is shaping up to be another once-in-a-lifetime Crisis, similar to the most dramatic turning points in American history. Although the current cultural and political divisions are part of his story, he is cautious about trying to say which side should or will win. He does not expect a total victory of either one. “In a democratic society, one tribe never fully dominates the other without incorporating key elements of the other’s program within its own.”
While I agree with that, I will strike a somewhat more partisan note. One thing that stood out for me as I read the historical parts of the book is that the three last “saecula”—Howe’s term for the long cycles of American history—have all culminated in victories for democracy. The Revolutionary Saeculum ended with the victory of democracy over monarchy and British colonialism. The Civil War Saeculum ended with the victory of democracy over slavery. The Great Power Saeculum ended with the victory of democracy over fascism. Democracy is always a work in progress, and none of these turning points perfected it. But I think we should at least hope that our current Millennial Saeculum leaves democracy stronger than ever before.
Today’s battle for democracy
If that is our hope, then the next question is which side in today’s political struggle better represents our democratic values and institutions. Once we pose the question that way, the answer seems obvious: Surely it is not the party dominated by Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.
Trump’s own autocratic tendencies are obvious to many observers. He places himself above the law, claiming immunity from prosecution for any acts committed as president. He expresses his admiration for dictators like Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban. He wants to replace thousands of Civil Service employees with people selected less for their expertise than for their personal loyalty to him. Having failed to change the results of the 2020 election by legal means, he led an effort to resort to illegal means, with substantial support from both Republican leaders and the party base. The Mueller Report had already accused him of obstructing its investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Now he continues to obstruct, delay and attack any court that tries to hold him accountable.
In addition to using undemocratic means to gain or maintain domestic power, MAGA Republicans have been impeding US support for democracy in the world. They are currently obstructing military aid to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian invasion. They are less committed to international cooperation among democratic nations through NATO, the United Nations, and international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. Their global stance is reminiscent of the isolationism that prevailed before the United States joined the war effort against Nazi Germany. As columnist Max Boot wrote this week:
Every president but one since Franklin D. Roosevelt has believed that the United States should exercise preeminent international influence for its own good and that of the world. Trump is the lone exception. He is committed to an “America First” agenda — the same label embraced by the Nazi sympathizers and isolationists of the pre-Pearl Harbor period. He has nothing but scorn for the twin pillars of postwar U.S. foreign policy: free-trade pacts and security alliances.
MAGA economic policies also seem more appropriate for an earlier, pre-Crisis time. They include propping up the private sector with additional tax cuts, while depriving the public sector of needed tax revenue and opposing public sector investments for the common good. In some cases, these policies are throwbacks to the previous Unraveling era, especially the 1920s. Then too, tariffs and trade wars hampered the global economy, and restrictive immigration laws tried to hold back the ethnic diversification of the population. Howe points out that since the American-born population is reproducing too slowly to replace itself, we depend on immigration to grow the population and boost the economy. Immigration is one area where compromise is needed, with some balance between facilitating legal immigration and blocking illegal immigration. Currently, Trump and his followers prefer chaos to compromise, in the hope that it will benefit them politically. In general, MAGA policies are less likely to leave the nation greater and stronger than poorer and weaker.
Framing the current Crisis as a crisis of democracy highlights the absurdity—but also the critical importance—of this year’s presidential campaign. One of our major parties is preparing to nominate the man who is least likely to uphold democratic institutions at home and abroad.
Where the generations will stand
Donald Trump is a member of the Boom generation, the generation of the Prophet type which is supposed to provide the moral leadership in a time of Crisis. But he is noted for neither his personal morality nor his civic virtue. Writers like Tim Alberta (The Kingdom, the Power and the Glory) have marveled that so many evangelical Christians have hitched their wagon to a leader who flouts so many moral norms. If Trump is a prophet at all, he is a false prophet or Prophet of Doom. His message is that the country is going rapidly to hell, and he alone can save us. Contrast that with FDR’s positive, hopeful message that we have nothing to fear if we all pull together.
Where are the progressive leaders of the Boom generation? Here’s an interesting fact: Both Republican Boomer presidents, George W. Bush and Donald Trump, lost the popular vote to their Democratic Boomer opponents—Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Both elections were controversial, since five Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices intervened in the 2000 election, and the Russians interfered with the 2016 election. While the presidency has been narrowly out of reach for them lately, Boomer Democrats do hold the position of Senate Majority Leader (Chuck Schumer) and governorships in fifteen states.
I do not know whether any particular Boomer will emerge as a “Gray Champion” like Franklin Roosevelt. I do expect aging Boomers to keep raising questions of values and ideals, trying to formulate broad goals for the nation. They will probably move from asserting individual values like self-expression, personal growth and sexual freedom; to placing more emphasis on civic virtues like voting rights, honest debate and the rule of law. Expect to hear a lot about democratic values being on the ballot in the upcoming election.
As members of Generation X assume their midlife leadership roles, they will bring a lot of practical skills to the collective tasks at hand. As an especially right-leaning generation thus far, they will need to ask serious questions about what values and goals they serve. Hopefully, Trump’s fall from power will soon be complete, either by electoral defeat, criminal conviction, removal from office, or ineligibility to run again. Having been slavishly devoted to its one strongman, the MAGA movement may then disintegrate. Many Generation Xers may then rethink their loyalties, turning from the politics of grievance and resentment to something more constructive. Alienated and lonely young men may then reconnect with their communities and learn how to fight for society instead of against it.
As members of the Millennial Generation complete their transition to adulthood, their first civic obligation will be to vote in large numbers. In later life, they will assume leadership during the High era that hopefully follows the current Crisis, as the G.I. Generation did after World War II. But for now, they will provide masses of followers for whatever leader can set the national agenda. The leader to inspire them will almost certainly be someone less selfish, narcissistic, and belligerent than Donald Trump. This generation craves teamwork, order, security, competence and civility. They are ready and willing to make sacrifices for causes they believe in. Although they are not currently wild about our aging Silent-Generation president, they are ready to join some team, and I don’t think the MAGA team will suit them.
When the national mood changes, it often changes with dizzying speed. Who predicted the emergence of a “counterculture” in the 1960s, the Reagan Revolution of the 1980s, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, or the MAGA movement of 2016? We live in “interesting times,” in the words of the Chinese curse. Fasten your seatbelts, and prepare to be astonished at how fast the country can turn
Posted by Ed Steffes 
Beneath the Surface 