Living Dangerously (part 3)

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Although total deaths from the coronavirus continue to climb, the rate of increase for the United States as a whole continues to fall. This week’s addition of 10,239 deaths represented a percentage increase of 13%, compared to a 19% increase the week before and a 23% increase the week before that. A month ago, for the week ending on April 18, the weekly increase was 90%.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation continues to project a gradual decline in deaths over the summer. However, it has once again raised its projection of total deaths from 134,475 to 147,040 by August 4, because mortality is not declining quite as fast as previously projected.

A comparison of state mortality data reveals an interesting pattern. The list of the ten states with the highest total deaths has not changed very much. It now includes New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, California, Louisiana and Florida. The list was similar a month ago, except that it included Washington and Georgia instead of Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

However, the states with the highest weekly percentage increase in deaths are a completely different group. They include Iowa (37%), New Mexico (36%), New Hampshire (31%), Delaware (29%), South Dakota (29%), Arizona (28%), Nebraska (28%), Minnesota (25%), Missouri (25%), and Texas (tied with Alabama at 24%). This is clear evidence that the epidemic is spreading beyond the coastal cities and posing a greater threat to the interior and more rural regions of the country. Those states need to proceed with caution as they try to promote economic recovery without generating a new spike in mortality.

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