Living Dangerously (part 4)

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As of this Memorial Day weekend, the US death toll from covid-19 continues to rise at a slower rate, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage. This week’s 8,812 new deaths represented an increase of 10%, compared to a increase of 10,239 (13%) the previous week. Slower increase was the story in most states, despite the easing of restrictions on public activity. All ten of the states with the highest percentage increase the previous week (listed in the previous post) had a lower rate of increase this week. A few other states, however, experienced a higher percentage increase this week: Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah and Wyoming. The good news is that no state has been experiencing a sustained acceleration of deaths.

Two words of caution, however. Some states have serious local outbreaks of infection, as in Minneapolis, MN and Montgomery, AL. These have the potential to expand into wider outbreaks. And since death is a lagging indicator of infection, it is too early to conclude that the economy is safely reopening without a resurgence of the disease. Be careful and stay safe this holiday.

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